Unfolding Population Resilience and Socioeconomic Disparities in Response to Cyclones in India: Insights from Mobile Phone Data

Abstract

Cyclones represent one of the most severe and recurring hazards in South Asia, yet quantitative evidence on anticipatory behaviour and temporary displacements remains scarce. This study quantifies population resilience (capturing short-term movement, in contrast to permanent migration) and recovery dynamics in response to cyclones in India, and evaluates how this varies across socioeconomic groups. Using high-frequency mobile app location data (2019–2020) and a panel event-study design, we estimate event-time effects on population density and demonstrate systematic heterogeneity in displacement magnitude, recovery speed, and destination choice by socioeconomic status. Results show anticipatory increases in communication and mobility before landfall, consistent with preparedness and information exchange, followed by sharp declines in active devices and unique users within exposed areas. After roughly two weeks, the population density converges back towards the baseline. This analysis is extended to assess how population resilience varies by socioeconomic status. Findings show that richer areas exhibit steeper declines and slower rebounds, while poorer areas show muted responses. Event-time dynamics of mobility networks further reveal immediate intra-community relocations dominating in the aftermath and inter-community movements rising during recovery. Findings show that mobile app location data can complement traditional disaster statistics and inform inclusive, evidence-based risk reduction policies in cyclone-prone regions.

Under Review.